Top Threats to Higher
Ed in 2019
Part I
At last month’s Board of Trustees meeting, I shared my list
of the top challenges for Susquehanna University. The first six are of concern
to most institutions of higher education. The last two vary significantly by
institution, region, and sector. They were:
1.
Market Disturbance
2.
National Association for College Admission
Counseling (NACAC) Changes
3.
Price Sensitivity
4.
International Student Decreases
5.
2026 “Demographic Cliff”
6.
Poor Public Understanding of What We Do
7.
Geographic Population Redistribution
8.
Limited Reputation
Over the next few weeks, I will address each of these in a
separate post. They are interconnected in that they all affect “consumer
behavior” as it applies to collegiate education.
Threat No. 1 —Market
Disturbance
Most colleges and universities have been planning for the “Demographic
Cliff of 2026,” when the number of traditional college-age student will drop
significantly.
In the absence of war or pestilence, we know how many
18-year-olds there will be for the next 18 years, which is why we know there
will be a marked decline seven years from now. Based upon historic behavior and
trends, we also know approximately how many of them will enroll in college when
they reach that age.
The fall of 2019 presented a surprise to many in higher
education, because the anticipated number of traditional-aged students who
enrolled in college nationally was 1.7% lower than anticipated. Pennsylvania
missed the mark by 2.6%. The disruption that occurred this past year was not
only varied by region, but by institutional type.
Nathan Grawe, an economist at Carleton College, has done
excellent work on the challenges demographic change will create for colleges
and universities. In his seminal book, Demographics
and the Demand for Higher Education, Grawe posits that, in general, the
most prestigious institutions will be the least susceptible to changing demands.
To a certain extent that remains true, but some colleges (especially
in the Northeast), whose enrollments had been historically impervious, saw
dramatic declines in first-year admissions. Likewise, some institutions, like Virginia
Tech found themselves awash with over-enrollments.
I believe that a number of the threats in the list above are
collectively driving the calculus that is shifting the higher-ed marketplace. Many
Americans don’t understand what we do in the academy, and the media are
steadily undermining public confidence in what remains a significant public good.
Families have become far more price sensitive, and international
enrollments are in a third year of decline.
These stresses are compounded by the current job market. More
young people are entering the workforce in lieu of college. This may be a good short-term
strategy for many who plan to matriculate in the next few years.
In many instances, the media suggest that the ROI (return on
investment) of a college degree is now a shaky bet; however, this September, at
a gathering of university leaders, Joe
Barrett, US Midwest and
national education editor of The Wall Street Journal, stated
that the earnings gap between college graduates and non-graduates is at an all-time
high.
Last week, a new report was released by the Georgetown University Center
on Education and the Workforce that quantifies the financial ROI of degrees
from over 4,500 post-secondary educational institutions. I was proud and not surprised that Susquehanna
is among the top 10% for positive ROI.
That is good news, but it
is important to remember that the true ROI of a liberal-arts education is not merely
economic. It is an investment in lifelong learning, enhanced citizenship, and preparing
for a life well lived. These are benefits worthy of investment to which I
hope the market will return.