Top Threats to Higher
Ed in 2019
Threats No. 5— 2026
“Demographic Cliff” and No. 7—Geographic Population Redistribution
Following the Great Recession, birthrates in the U.S.
dropped dramatically across the population. These are the children that will enter
traditional college age in 2026. As Nathan Grawe reports,
“Between 2025 and 2029,
the number of college-going students will decline by 15%—that’s over 400,000
fewer students in a span of four years.”
There
have been birthrate declines in the past, including following the Great Depression
and the end of the baby boom. In both cases, birthrates picked up again, but
that is not yet true this time. Also, following the baby boom, we saw an
increase in the percentage of 18-year-olds enrolling in college, which as I
wrote a few weeks ago, is also in decline.
These
impending deficits are exacerbated by the recent drop in new international
students, whom many college leaders in
the U.S. had hoped would fill the impending enrollment gap.
The U.S. population is in the midst of significant
geographic redistribution. In the last four decades, the populations of New
York and Illinois grew 11% and Pennsylvania grew 8%, while the national
population grew 46%. During that same period, California grew 67%, Texas 102%, and
Florida 119%.
The redistribution of urban
populations has been more dynamic. New York City grew 22%, Los Angeles 37%, San Diego 66%, and Phoenix 117%. The population of Philadelphia fell by 7% and
Chicago fell by 11%. Detroit plummeted by 45% moving from 6th place
to 26th in 39 years.
These
changes will have a wildly varied impact across higher education. Some institutions
will see influxes of new students migrating in their direction; others will
need to make adjustments to respond to a declining traditional market share.
The most elite institutions are unlikely to experience much impact because
their demand curves are so high.
If one looks at where the
majority of private, non-profit liberal arts colleges are placed, they are not
where the growth of population is occurring. Likewise, the preponderance of
these institutions are where populations
are stagnated or declining.
One
significant population that may provide a buffer for institutions for whom the
demographic cliff looks like a train headed their way is the significant population
of non-completers. There are currently over 36
million people in the U.S. who have left college since 1993 without
receiving a credential. Rethinking our audience by engaging those students will be an important step in
sustaining our missions.
